FOX sports betting analyst
If you’re looking for something to be thankful for this week, get this: Receive NFL Week 12 Odds and College Football Week 13 Odds Betting Nuggets a Day Early. Yes, the Thanksgiving holiday has brought the deadline forward and you, loyal reader, are the beneficiary.
And while Michigan-Ohio State is huge on FOX this week, we have to start with the three-game Turkey Day football fest.
Specifically, let’s start with the middle matchup in this Thanksgiving sandwich, arguably the game of the week as the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. Also on FOX and the FOX Sports App, by the way, kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Favorites and Overs
Dallas looked fantastic in Week 11, beating Minnesota 40-3 with the Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites on the road. So the ‘boys’ are now 7-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). That’ll pay some bills if you’re betting on the Cowboys.
The Giants surprised many with their 6-1 SU and ATS start, but they’ve since dropped two of three to also be at 7-3 SU and ATS. Last weekend, New York finished as a 3-point home favorite against Detroit, falling 31-18.
With Dallas looking hot and New York not, WynnBet opened Cowboys -8 on Sunday night. By Tuesday night, the line was already at Cowboys -10. That’s no surprise to WynnBet senior trader John Manica.
“Today is Turkey Day. Favorites and overs are the usual fun bets that crowds like to make on this holiday,” said Manica. “The Giants’ loss coupled with the Vikings’ Dallas blowout win made this a one-sided liability affair. Although the public is likely to support the Cowboys and the Overs, we made a sharp bet at -8 the Cowboys and we immediately switched to -9.”
That move came Monday morning, and the move to -10 came Tuesday night. The total opened at 43.5 and is already at 45.5.
“The total also had some respected opinions as we took bets at 43.5 and 44.5,” Manica said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if those two numbers continue to rise as we head into Thursday. The book will surely cheer on the Giants and the Under.”
The sharp side
Professional bettors like to hit numbers early when they feel they have an advantage. A good player did that with three games on the NFL Week 11 odds board, including the Thanksgiving nightcap where the New England Patriots travel to face the Minnesota Vikings.
“I like the Vikings -2.5,” he said while noting what he believes is a key Patriots injury as center David Andrews (hamstring) is doubtful to play. “And the quick turnaround hurts the New England coaching staff.”
In fact, the Pats (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) have to travel in a short week. Meanwhile, the Vikings (8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) are likely dying to get back on the field and prove themselves after the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys.
The bettor is also watching the Falcons Commanders competition which begins Sunday at 1pm ET on FOX.
“I took Washington -3. Kyle Pitts’ injury hurts Atlanta,” he said, alluding to the tight end IR had with a knee injury. “I would go up to 6 points with Washington. This is an underrated team. I took them 80-1 to win the NFC.”
He is also on the Seattle Seahawks -3 (-120) against the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.
Additionally, he likes Cincinnati in Tennessee when Bengal’s wideout Ja’Marr Chase (hip) is released for Sunday’s game. More on that below.
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College Football Rocks on FOX
It could easily be argued that this weekend’s biggest game is the Big Noon FOX fight between undefeated Michigan and Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus, OH. Just when you thought Thanksgiving weekend couldn’t get any better, Gus Johnson is reporting for a vital game in the college football playoff chase.
Both teams are 11-0 SU, although neither was dynamic to cover the number. Michigan is 6-4-1 ATS while Ohio State is 5-5-1 ATS.
WynnBet opened this powerful matchup Sunday night in favor of Ohio State -8 (-115), and shortly thereafter went first to Buckeyes -8.5. However, late Sunday night, the lead fell to Ohio State’s -7.5, where it has spent the past few days.
The decline runs counter to the betting action.
“We’ve seen most of the Buckeyes’ money,” said WynnBet junior trader Caden Wickwire. “The current range of -7.5 may seem short considering Ohio State is looking to claim a comfortable win before attempting the national title. The Buckeyes have a chance to avenge last year’s 42-27 loss.”
The total opened at 57.5 and moved to 57 on Monday.
“We didn’t see much action there. We expect that to change as the packed week of sports betting continues,” Wickwire said.
FOX also has the deciding game between Iowa State and TCU on Saturday, in which the Horned Frogs (11-0 SU, 8-2-1 ATS) will aim to remain in the top four in the college football playoff rankings. As of late Tuesday night, Texas Christian is a 10-point home favorite.
As well as the Horned Frogs have handled point spread bettors this season, public/recreational players will likely again support TCU and lay those double digits for a 4pm ET kick-off.
thrill of the hunt
Back in the NFL, the Bengals take on the Titans in Sunday’s best game. Tennessee (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) is on a 7-1 SU/8-0 ATS spree, while Cincinnati (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won four of five SUs and is 7-1 stands ATS in the last eight games.
Oh, and some stud-wideout might be back for the Bengals, who are 1.5-point favorites at WynnBet at the moment.
“It’s early in the week and there are reports that star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is on the practice field,” Manica said, noting that Chase could be making a three-game return with a hip injury. “If he leaves we will see some Bengals supporters step in immediately and the price will go up to -2.5 or even -3. Joe Burrow is getting the Bengals buzzing and into the playoffs.”
However, Manica noted that the Titans are cruising on the AFC South and exiting the mini-bye. In Week 11, Tennessee played Thursday night in Green Bay and won 27-17.
“This competition has respected bets on both sides as we took a bet at -1.5 on the Bengals then the Titans were snapped +2 a few hours later which brought us back down,” said Manica. “This is a toss-up as the betting public is likely to be divided with the crosses. Look for the Chase news to determine the movement of the market. The brilliant Burrow against the pounding Derrick Henry will certainly be entertaining.”
I like big bets and I can’t lie
As this report comes out a day earlier than normal, there isn’t much to report on #MajorWagers for the upcoming games. But Monday night’s soccer game in Mexico City drew all kinds of attention.
Caesars Sports reported on a series of big plays in the San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals clash. And most of the action happened with the underdog Cardinals. The sequence:
- $220,000 on Cardinals +10
- $120,000 on Cardinals +10.5 (-120)
- Two $100,000 Cardinals moneyline bets at +400 and +380 from a customer
- $130,000 on 49ers -8
As Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sports, quipped before kick-off while alluding to Mexico City’s altitude:
“The need to win and cover a favorite is well above sea level.”
In fact, Caesars got what Caesars wanted. The Niners rolled 38-10 and easily tied as double-digit favorites.
We hope that we can all live like Caesars in this football festival of a weekend. Happy Thanksgiving!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst at FOX Sports and a senior reporter at VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the field of national sports betting. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickEVegas.
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