Two Lone Star State conference contenders face off in the regular season finals as Texas hosts Baylor, who still has a shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as college football action heats up in Week 13 on Black Friday .
No, that age-old cliché doesn’t quite apply to Texas, which “doesn’t control its own destiny” but does control a portion of it. By beating Baylor on Friday, it’s technically still in the running to get to Arlington and take another shot at TCU.
Assuming Kansas defeats Kansas State on Saturday. Texas beat the Wildcats earlier this season and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, but Kansas State would have the superior overall and conference record if it beat KU combined with a Longhorns loss to Baylor.
Place your bets: College football picks against the week 13 spread
As for Baylor? The defending champions of the Big 12 come a year after a 5-1 defeat of top 25 opponents on their way to this season’s league title with a 4-0 loss to ranked teams.
Baylor had a nice three-game win streak midway through this season to get back into the conversation, but then there were two costly losses, with 28 against Kansas State and a 1-point decision at home thanks to the successful fire drill field -Goals of the TCU at the last second.
What do the experts think of the matchup? Let’s see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.
Texas vs. Baylor tips, predictions
Texas Prediction: The computer is heavily in favor of the Longhorns, who have an 81.6 percent chance of winning the game outright.
Baylor Prediction: That leaves the defending Big 12 champion with the outside 18.4 percent shot to upset Texas and end the season in victory.
Point distribution: According to SI Sportsbook lines, Texas comes in as an 8.5-point favorite to win the game.
Place your bets: Bet on Texas vs. Baylor at SI Sportsbook
Betting Trends: Baylor is 5-1 ATS after a straight loss… The over is 4-0 in Baylor’s last four away games… The under is 6-1 in Texas’ last seven home games… The favorite is 3- 1- 1 ATS in the last four of this series.
In total: 56 points
money line: Baylor +240 | Texas-333
Outcome Prediction: Team Rankings estimates that Texas will defeat Baylor on Saturday by 32.0 to 23.1 points.
College Football HQ Prediction: Our own projections show Texas has an 83 percent chance of defeating Baylor (33-22) and covering the spread.
How to see: The game is scheduled for Friday, November 25th at 11am Central Time on the ESPN main network and streams on fuboTV (try free).
college football pick them: Pick of week 13, predictions by computer model
According to CFP selection committee
- State of Ohio
- State of Kansas
- State of Florida
- North Carolina
- Ole Fraulein
- Oregon State
More College Football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | All teams
Follow College Football HQ: Bookmarks | Ranking | Facebook